The Russia-Ukraine crisis has not only caused havoc to the millions of Ukrainians who have been displaced, but it has also caused severe economic effects that are felt by billions globally. And Africa is feeling the effect in one area in particular more than other regions: a food shortage.
The world heavily relies on both Russia and Ukraine’s fertile farmlands that produce the world’s main sources of grain, wheat, corn, sunflower oil, fertilizers, and energy, accounting for one-third of the world’s agricultural supplies. And Africa heavily relies on these sources for its basic food necessities, more so than other regions.
Ukraine has been hit in some key cities in which many of these crops are grown, such as Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zhitomir. Farmers have fled. And to preserve as much food as possible, Ukraine has placed a ban on exporting its agricultural products. Shortly after Ukraine imposed its ban, Russia imposed the same ban.
The ban of agricultural export is needed to prevent a “humanitarian crisis in Ukraine,” says Roman Leshchenko, Ukraine’s minister of agrarian. He says that it is to stabilize the market and “meet the needs of the population in critical food products. The ban also prohibits the export of millet, buckwheat, sugar, live cattle, and byproducts of cattle.
Within just two weeks of the war, prices have surged 55%. And the Ukrainian government has banned the exportation of wheat, oats, and other staples that are staple to secure food for its people within its borders. But that means that countries outside the border will be losing out on these basic necessities.
“The countries that Ukraine exports the most maize to are China and those in the EU,” says Eric Collier, an economist at the trade and markets division of the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). But she also adds that “those countries have the capacity to import supplies from other countries.” On the contrary, many African countries don’t have the capacity to import outside of Ukraine, “where maize is a food source, and they depend on imports,” Collier adds.
To give some perspective, African countries imported agricultural products worth $4 billion from Russia in 2020 alone. About 90% of these imports was wheat, and about 50% was imported to Egypt. Other top tier countries importing the most wheat include Sudan and Nigeria. As far as Ukraine, it exported $2.9 billion worth of goods in 2020, the majority of it being wheat and maize.
The expected rise in food prices may cause serious economic strains to a region that has already been feeling the strain over the past few years. “Food prices are already high now. If the war stretches, there will be millions of Africans that will be in hunger.” says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. “We are already expecting millions of people to be in hunger in the areas affected by the drought, so the ongoing conflict will worsen that.”
Most analysts were initially expecting that the wheat and agricultural shortages would not be seen until late 2022; however, because Egypt is importing nearly 50% of its wheat from Russia, it is already bearing the brunt of rising prices, as the cost of food has already risen by 50%.
Despite the great impact of the war on African nations, some Asian countries are also facing an imminent threat. Countries like Bangladesh, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Turkey and Pakistan rely on wheat imported from Russia and Ukraine.
Before the war erupted, Lebanon imported over three-quarters of national wheat from Russia and Ukraine. But since both countries have halted exports, prices have been steadily rising. Additionally, with the ongoing conflict and inflation in Yemen, it has pushed millions to the brink of famine. And Yemen imports approximately 40% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The consequences of eliminating this source will be a devastating humanitarian crisis for Yemen.
As the Russia-Ukraine crisis is having a global effect on economies and basic, fundamental requirements of subsistence, there are no signs of a resolution – and so its consequences around the world are mere estimations. Its final outcome may be something the world hasn’t seen since World War II.