On November 2, 2021, the federal government of Ethiopia declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency, as Tigrayan forces were slowly marching toward the capital city. Thousands of people had to cancel plans of entering the country – and those living in the capital, had to remain within its walls.
While the state of emergency imposed curfews, disrupted businesses, and put an overall dent on the economy, that six-month timeline has shortened, as the threat to national security has now subsided.
Last month, the notion of ending the state of emergency was brought before the parliament. The government then released several political prisoners, including TPLF leaders, paving the way for a smooth national dialogue. And after a parliament vote, on Feb 15, the state of emergency was uplifted, giving citizens some hope of stability and a true end to this civil war.
The measures taken by the federal government have been recognized by several states. The U.S State Department immediately responded to the progress saying this an “important step.” The Turkish Ministry of Affairs released a statement saying that “We consider this decision as a right step toward achieving peace and stability in the country.”
Additionally, the United Nations has asked for the immediate release of all those arrested or detained without any charges, who were captured under the state of emergency.
While the federal government has taken the necessary steps to end the war, the question remains if it will include TPLF in the national dialogue, should the federal government be willing to work with TPLF. Throughout the war, the government has labeled TPLF as terrorists – and it says that terrorists will not participate in the national dialogue.
On the contrary, Ambassador Dina Mufti, spokesperson of the Ministry of Affairs of Ethiopia, says that there is some pressure on the government to remove that label from the TPLF. However, his candid response was clear: “The planned national dialogue is not a negotiation and the Ethiopian government does not have any agenda to negotiate with a designated terrorist group, including TPLF,” he says.
So if TPFL is not included, can the Ethiopians really hope for a cease fire? While the federal government is releasing prisoners who were not given their due process, they may not be completely scotch free. They may still be charged and the courts will decide their fate.
At the 35th session of the Assembly of the African Union (AU), the representative of the Secretary General, Amina Mohmammed, may have just echoed similar sentiments of uncertainty. “There is much more conversation and dialogue and talk around the national dialogue itself and the way to peace,” Mohammed says.
When visiting Ethiopia, Mohammed visited the regions of Tigray, Amhara, Somali, and Afar. After witnessing the humanitarian crises of these regions, she’s still hopeful, as she calls all the parties for a peaceful dialogue and negotiation. But if those parties don’t include TPLF, then that leaves the question of how this peace transition will play out.
And as Mohammed is saying that “there is certainly less hostility than there was a few months ago,” perhaps some hostility still remains, as the fate of released prisoners remains unknown. And until that is resolved, Ethiopian citizens may still be waiting for the cessation of all hostility and a return to normalcy, something they’ve been anticipating for nearly two years.
