On Dec 2, Prime Minister Abi Ahmed tweeted the “Great Ethiopian Homecoming,” in which he challenged 1 million Ethiopians worldwide to come to Ethiopia by January 7, while planting a seed of hope that the war is ending and that the federal government has stymied its opposition. However, the events that have transpired afterwards may put a small dent on that hope.
Ahmed is reported to have said that “there will be negotiations on a cease-fire between the government and TPFL,” according to Mesfin Tegenu, chairman of the American Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee. Tegenu has also quoted Ahmed as saying that “there will be negotiations, reasonable negotiations, that will keep the interest of the integrity of the nation first.” And in an interview with BBC Africa, TPLF leader, Dr. Dibrasion, has echoed similar sentiments, saying there are indirect talks with the Ethiopian government.
Will Rose of BBC Africa tweeted that “TPLF chairman, Debrestsion Gebremichael, tells BBC they’ve started talking with the Addis government – ‘shuttle communications and discussions’ has led to ‘signs of improvements’ but waiting for this shuttle diplomacy to bear fruit.”
It is still unclear as to who is behind the negotiation and who is leading it. There are rumors that the U.S is behind the negotiations while others have claimed that it is Kenya.
While negotiations are seemingly taking place with rebuilding efforts in the regions of Amhara and Afar, 6 million people in Tigray still remain under blockade, in what WHO Chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has described as “hell.”
However, the prime minister and the federal government have tried to placate constituents with a number of measures taken to show its attempt in a peaceful negotiation. “We are going to do all [that is] humanly possible to get supplies in to make sure the population suffering will not continue to suffer,” Mefsin said. Additionally, the Ethiopian Telecommunications CEO Ferheywat Tamru says that they are working to reinstate the network in the Tigray region and is budgeting 7 billion birr to get that accomplished. Furthermore, several opposition leaders, including TPLF leaders, have been released from prison, although this has sparked mixed emotions from the public.
But while there is public talk about potential negotiations and ostensible measures from the government that indicate such, TPLF has launched a military attack in the Afar region, causing the public to question the legitimacy of the negotiation. Residents of the town of Abala, which borders Tigray, have witnessed a heavy fire in the area since January 14. Artillery fires have damaged schools, mosques and homes. Additionally, it blocks aid routes into Tigray.
“The [TPLF] soldiers were firing into our town from the mountains,” said Omer Ali, a resident of Abala who says he was present during the attack. “The attacks overwhelmed the Afar region special forces. Afar government authorities called on residents to join arms as they grew closer to the town, according to Omer. “Once the residents who had weapons joined the fight, the soldiers were pushed back.”
In response, the Ethiopian National Security Council, a body that is chaired by the PM with membership from the Defense Force, convened regarding the “TPLF provocation.” Temesgen Tiruneh, Director of NISS said that the Defense Force was given direction to take action, but no further detail was given.
While there may have been a glimmer of hope with talks of negotiation, the latest attack in Afar may encumber some of the progress made. The Federal Defense Force hasn’t exactly responded to the attack. And the federal government hasn’t released an official statement regarding negotiation.